NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 072029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

.SHORT TERM...HIGH FCST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU NT. WIND MAXIMUMS
FROM 925 MB UP TO THE JET STREAM LEVEL WILL SHIFT EAST OF SRN WI
BY 00Z. GIVEN JET MAXIMUM SHIFTING EAST AND LACK OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS NORTH AND WEST OF KMSN THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE OPTED TO END
WIND ADVISORY AT 4 PM FOR THOSE COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FROM KFLD TO KMSN TO
KEFT AND EASTWARD.

OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO WRN QUEBEC CANADA
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SUBSIDENCE...CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
CWA...CLOSER TO APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THEN PREVAIL WED AND THU AS UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN
USA. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES ALONG IL BORDER THU NT AS REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM FCST CONFIDENCE FRI-TUE.
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH THE UPCOMING ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA HAS BEEN THE BETTER MODEL THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH GFS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THUS HELD OFF ON
CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRI NT AND SAT FOR FROPA AND PASSAGE OF UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO THEN BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN MON-TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. CLOUD DECK WILL ALSO DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND
THROUGH 03Z OR 10PM THIS EVENING. ONCE THIS EXPIRES...WILL LIKELY
NEED TO CARRY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-058>060-
     063>066-068>072.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-067.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...07

NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion