NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
470
FXUS63 KMKX 092319
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
619 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mild and breezy afternoon giving way to another cool period
and some frost at night through Monday. A Frost Advisory may
be needed Sunday night/early Monday morning over portions of
southern WI.
- A clipper system brings high shower chances (80 percent) for
Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but no severe
storms are anticipated at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 612 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Forecast details remain on track early this evening. Models
still suggest overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.
While areas of light frost are expected inland from Lake
Michigan, projected temperature and wind conditions overnight
still remain above frost advisory criteria at this time.
CMiller
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
This afternoon through Monday:
Another mild and breezy afternoon with high based cumulus
clouds is occurring. The breezy nwly winds are associated with
the passage of a cold front which will mark the beginning of a
cool period lasting into Monday. Lighter nly winds and cold
advection will continue tnt, including areas of frost well
inland from the lake. Temps are not quite cool enough for an
advisory at this time.
A shortwave trough within nwly flow aloft will then bring
another round of high based cumulus clouds and scattered
sprinkles for Sunday afternoon. High temps will range from
55-60F across srn WI. High pressure moving into nrn MN will then
reach srn WI by Mon AM with low temps once again in the 30s. A
Frost Advisory will likely be needed for portions of srn WI Sun
nt/Mon AM. The high pressure area will gradually shift ewd on
Mon with lgt sly winds not developing until late in the day.
High temps will range from the upper 40s at the Lake MI
shoreline to around 60F over south central WI.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 130 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Monday night through Saturday:
Models continue to support a fairly strong shortwave trough and
associated wave of low pressure tracking from Canada to central
WI on Tue. A well organized swly low level jet of 45-50 kt and
warm, moist advection pattern will bring sufficient moisture and
lift for widespread rain and perhaps scattered elevated convection.
There will be just low chances for sfc based convection with the
cold frontal passage late Tue afternoon and evening.
High pressure will then follow for Wed nt-Thu AM followed by a
jet stream pattern change to quasi-zonal for late next week.
This will bring a return of warm and humid conditions and
increasing rain chances.
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 618 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Dry conditions and VFR skies will persist tonight into tomorrow
afternoon. Light northwest winds will come around to westerly
following the passage of a cold front after 06Z.
Tomorrow, breezy northwest winds return with gusts to 20 knots.
Widespread cu with bases around 5000 to 6000 feet will form
during the afternoon hours leading to SCT to OVC VFR skies and
may produce a few sprinkles.
CMiller
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 130 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Low pressure around 29.5 inches east of Lake Superior this
afternoon will move into southern Quebec tonight. Its trailing
cold front will continue to move across Lake Michigan this
afternoon. Westerly winds ahead of the front will veer northwest
with the frontal passage. Gusty northwest winds are expected
near the western shoreline this afternoon. A backdoor cold front
will then sag southward across the lake this evening through
tonight, with a period of north to northeast winds behind it.
High pressure around 30.3 inches is then expected to move from
southern Manitoba on Sunday to over Lake Michigan by Monday
morning. Relatively light and variable winds are expected during
this period. Low pressure around 29.7 inches should then move east
southeast across the region Tuesday, with increasing south to
southeast winds ahead of it, veering west to northwest behind it
for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
Saturday.
&&
$$
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