NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
450 FXUS63 KMKX 251443 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas possible again tonight. - Above normal temperatures return late week into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 The areas of dense fog (mainly shallow) and also low clouds over central WI will continue to dissipate through late morning. Expect mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds today, and highs in the lower to mid 70s. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Today through Friday: Areas of lingering low clouds mainly east of Madison early this morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low pressure pulls away to the east. Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas is expected through early this morning, with improvement after sunrise. Could see a similar round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure. Temperatures will be a little milder today than yesterday, given more sunshine expected and warmer temps aloft. Temps will warm even more tomorrow ahead of a frontal boundary dropping towards the area from the north. It does look like the front will make it into at least the northern forecast area by the evening hours, likely stalling somewhere between I-94 and the WI/IL border tomorrow night. Clouds will likely increase as the front moves into the area, but no precipitation is currently expected given a lot of dry air above about 5 kft. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Saturday through Wednesday: 500 mb cluster analysis remains in decent agreement with showing an anomalous 500 mb ridge axis gradually developing over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada during this period. This will generally help steer weather systems to the north of the area during most of this period. There is a dry surface trough that should move east toward the area and washes out later Saturday or Saturday night, with high pressure slowly pushing east into the region Sunday. This high should then strengthen to the northeast into next week. Ensembles continue to suggest a fairly dry period of weather as a result across the area. The building 500 mb ridge should also allow for gradual warm air advection to occur, which should result in above normal temperatures this weekend into most of next week. Highs should reach into the lower 80s, perhaps a little higher, for most of the area this weekend into early portions of next week. There may be an increasing easterly component to the winds by the middle to latter portions of next week, which may bring 70s in eastern parts of the area. This is supported by the NBM temperature spreads being relatively small, with ensembles also favoring these warm temperatures. For reference, normal highs for the September 27 to October 4 period are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with normal lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A large area of VLIFR ceilings with shallow, dense fog is lingering over central WI and this will gradually dissipate through late morning. MVFR ceilings over eastern WI are also breaking up and diminishing. Areas of fog in similar areas is possible again tonight into early Friday under high pressure. North to northeast winds generally 10 knots or less today will become west to southwest 5 knots or less tonight. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 943 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Gusty northerly winds will gradually ease and become northwest today as low pressure around 29.8 inches over the Ohio River Valley continues eastward. Areas of fog over the northern third will linger through at least late morning. Westerly winds are expected tonight as high pressure around 30.0 inches slides across Illinois. A frontal boundary associated with a surface trough of around 29.8 inches will then drop through Lake Michigan from the north on Friday, with winds becoming northerly across at least the northern two- thirds of the lake. Light southerly winds will prevail on Saturday as the weak high departs and a low pressure trough around 29.8 inches crosses Manitoba and Ontario. High pressure around 30.1 inches will set up over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee