000
FXUS63 KMKX 171952
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
252 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2012

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THOUGH FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR...THINK LOW TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST
NIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...AND 925 MB TEMPS WILL
BE MILDER...AROUND 14-16C. HARD TO SEE TEMPS GETTING ANY LOWER THAN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

A GREAT DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
START OUT SOUTHERLY NEAR THE LAKE...BUT WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEAST BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE COOLER LAKE AIRMASS
INLAND.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH IS JUST TO OUR EAST WITH THE NEXT TROF/CDFNT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. SO QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY. A BIT BREEZY WITH GOOD
MIXING. 925MB TEMPS GET TOASTY SUPPORTING HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 80S. A SOUTHEAST BREEZE BY THE LAKE WILL KEEP IT COOLER BY THE
LAKE SHORE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE TROF TO THE WEST ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT THAT HAS BEEN TIGHTENED UP A BIT ON
THIS RUN. THE GFS/NAM ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS PICKED UP SPEED ON THE 12Z RUN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. STILL A HIGH CHANCE POP FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY WENT LIKELY IN THE FAR WEST
WITH THE BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE OUT THERE. THUNDERSTORM
PARAMETERS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN. SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK. LOOKS LIKE
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO LIMIT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS WELL.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF SAYS THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS HAS IT JUST EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER AT 00Z. WILL TAKE THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO IT CUTTING OFF A WEAK
UPPER LOW ONCE THE UPPER TROF HITS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
JUST STALLS THE FEATURES BELOW. THE GFS MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE
TROF...KEEPING THINGS MOVING RIGHT ALONG. THE GEMNH IS AN ODD
HYBRID SOLUTION OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WILL
HANG ONTO PRECIP CHCS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CUT THEM DOWN QUICKLY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO...FOR
MONDAY.

.TUESDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES /70S/...BUT A SLOW
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF LOOKS
HOT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...925MB TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
CELSIUS...THAT/S LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS IS ABOUT
10C COOLER...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AT GROUND LEVEL...STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS